Assessing Risk Assessment

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Christian Hugo Hoffmann undermines the citadel of risk assessment and management, arguing that classical probability theory is not an adequate foundation for modeling systemic and extreme risk in complex financial systems. He proposes a new class of models which focus on the knowledge dimension by precisely describing market participants’ own positions and their propensity to react to outside changes. The author closes his thesis by a synthetical reflection on methods and elaborates on the meaning of decision-making competency in a risk management context in banking. By choosing this poly-dimensional approach, the purpose of his work is to explore shortcomings of risk management approaches of financial institutions and to point out how they might be overcome.ContentsConcepts, Model Level and Risk AssessmentThe Transition to the Decision Level, Risk Assessment and ManagementIn Search of a New Paradigm: The Third Way as a Road to Logic-Based Risk Modeling (LBR)Meta Level: Thinking about Thinking and Practices – What it Means to Reach Effective Risk Management DecisionsTarget GroupsResearchers, academics, and students in the fields of finance and managementRisk professionals, consultants, analysts, politicians in the fields of economic and financial policyThe AuthorChristian Hugo Hoffmann completed his doctoral studies at the University of St. Gallen and Yale University. He co-founded a financial risk management start-up which translates these theoretical results into practical impact.