Europe: One Continent, Different Worlds Population Scenarios for the 21st Century

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Future demographic developments in Europe will be caused by the specific economic, social and cultural context, and will, in turn, have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To the extent that demographic trends differ across countries, separate countries may face different social and economic problems. As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic developments at an early stage. Within the European context, the question can be raised whether the socioeconomic and cultural dimensions of society are dominated by convergent or divergent forces, and what the consequences are of these assumed convergent or divergent tendencies for long-term future demographic developments in the countries of Europe. Since there is no unambiguous answer to this question, this book describes two alternative scenarios for Europe's future population. In the Uniformity scenario, convergent forces are dominant. This will eventually lead to a situation where only marginal economic and cultural differences exist across Europe. Trends in fertility and mortality will converge up to the year 2050, although over time patterns may differ across countries as a result of their different initial states. In contrast to the Uniformity scenario, a Diversity scenario is constructed where cultural, economic and demographic characteristics remain significantly different across countries. This book is the result of close collaboration between researchers from the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and Statistics Netherlands (SN). Although the project was a joint effort by all researchers involved, the book has assumed the form of an edited volume, with separate chapters by small groups of authors. The authors are, of course, responsible for writing their own contributions, but they were often involved to a certain extent in the realisation of some of the other chapters as well.