Prediction Revisited

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A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reimagination of the science of prediction In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned finance and risk experts at the top of their game describes a ground-breaking realignment of the connection between past experiences and future outcomes. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it maps out an elegant prediction system based on a novel measure of statistical relevance. Drawing upon information theory and an obscure yet profound mathematical equivalence, the authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions. Additionally, they introduce a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction's reliability, enabling researchers to fine tune their responses to specific predictions. Prediction Revisited also: * Illuminates many commonly accepted but less commonly understood notions of statistics * Reveals several valuable yet previously unrecognized mathematical equivalences * Includes colorful biographical sketches of some of the key scientists whose contributions paved the path to relevance-based prediction * Enables access to the mathematically minded reader as well as those who prefer an intuitive and conceptual discussion of the book's key ideas With its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is a must-read for anyone who aspires to reach a new level of understanding and mastery of data-driven prediction.