The Economic Consequences of the Gulf War

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The guns fell silent in the Persian Gulf on August 20, 1988, when Iran and Iraq finally agreed to a ceasefire. One of the longest and most devastating uninterrupted wars among modern nation states since 1945, the Iran-Iraq conflict produced neither victor nor vanquished, yet the domestic, regional, and international repercussions of the war clearly indicate that "going back" is not an option. The current crisis in the Persian Gulf has placed Iraq at the center of world attention. This study provides one of the first examinations of the economic consequences of the Gulf War and its impact on oil production, exports, foreign exchange earnings, non-defense foreign trade and agricultural performance. In the final section, Mofid brings together the component parts of the economic cost of the war to assign a dollar value to the devastation. The Gulf War has also provided some interesting and often alarming insights into international behavior. At one time or another, almost one-third of UN members provided weapons, ammunition, or support systems to both countries simultaneously, and undercover partnerships and loose loyalties flourished. Although the terminology of ceasefire has centered on the idea of reconstruction, this book questions the immediate future for the region. Is peace merely an opportunity to re-arm, consolidate, and prepare for further clashes, or is stability possible in a region devastated by war and shifting allegiances?